Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 2.367326 2.494258 2.630627 2.789218 2.970164 3.172194 3.417805
2025-04-06 2.146778 2.310556 2.495324 2.722781 3.000687 3.337245 3.789937
2025-04-13 2.016081 2.198146 2.409881 2.680391 3.026898 3.472571 4.123284
2025-04-20 1.955144 2.156816 2.398003 2.717257 3.145990 3.733804 4.677508
2025-04-27 1.925017 2.147266 2.420313 2.794738 3.322998 4.100706 5.504271
2025-05-04 1.869414 2.100813 2.390352 2.797339 3.392585 4.318568 6.166360
2025-05-11 1.821360 2.060012 2.363437 2.799478 3.458766 4.540795 6.945446
2025-05-18 1.754642 1.991379 2.294969 2.736555 3.416789 4.568627 7.309272
2025-05-25 1.712672 1.952541 2.263666 2.723614 3.450444 4.736935 8.136938
2025-06-01 1.672665 1.914225 2.230591 2.704887 3.471475 4.884725 9.040209
2025-06-08 1.634593 1.876742 2.196514 2.681773 3.481859 5.012936 10.029692
2025-06-15 1.619457 1.868931 2.202743 2.719338 3.599640 5.396897 12.732231
2025-06-22 1.573796 1.819557 2.149957 2.664921 3.553227 5.412745 13.793525
2025-06-29 1.528700 1.769707 2.094802 2.604075 3.490336 5.380012 14.602962
2025-07-06 1.493297 1.731901 2.055293 2.565595 3.465030 5.435623 16.395008
2025-07-13 1.481595 1.725943 2.060956 2.599090 3.578253 5.881503 26.076754
2025-07-20 1.480837 1.734814 2.088228 2.669325 3.773367 6.657000 276.549213
2025-07-27 1.461579 1.717129 2.075419 2.671679 3.830917 7.046754 NaN
2025-08-03 1.443322 1.700216 2.062957 2.673614 3.887792 7.472227 NaN
2025-08-10 1.410853 1.662366 2.017735 2.616604 3.809786 7.352970 NaN
2025-08-17 1.391402 1.642506 1.999067 2.604861 3.831562 7.651752 NaN
2025-08-24 1.371573 1.621589 1.978072 2.587856 3.839662 7.904954 NaN
2025-08-31 1.351665 1.600077 1.955478 2.566850 3.836437 8.113019 NaN